Over two million tweets in the last two months of the election campaign and almost three million fans on Facebook pages. These are the numbers of politics on social media… to hell with the more conservative ones, who still talk about online communities as a “phenomenon”.
And so, while the network declared Mengoni a success at Sanremo even before the official results, with the election campaign nearing its end, online discourse remains a protagonist with truly incredible numbers, now made available to the general public thanks to analysis companies capable of measuring the “temperature” of the web, even in real-time.
But let’s take things in order and discover what these numbers, difficult to achieve through traditional means, express. First of all, it’s important to clarify that these are not polls: there is no typical sample or specific statistical algorithm that “interprets” reality. The numbers are a representation of real data measured precisely: individuals, organizations, or other entities expressing their thoughts through the web. The measurement is therefore quantitative, but behind the quantity, analysts are able to read orientations, trends, needs, and necessities.
Thus, the numbers hide (but actually reveal) strategic information, whether it’s oriented towards politics or a company’s strategies. Those who understood this first have secured a competitive advantage that I would dare to call “infrastructural.”
Beppe Grillo, due to his communication structure and relationship with the media, is certainly the champion: in terms of conversational traction, meaning the attention he generates, he represents almost half the “market,” and the numbers say this, not polls. Of course, this doesn’t mean he will get half the votes. His numbers need to be interpreted differently: just look into the engagement – the interaction with his content – that his community expresses. An example? “Make a public admission of guilt and ask Italians to forgive you. Surrender!” is just one of many posts visible on Facebook, yet it gets 714 comments, 10,240 likes, and 7,597 shares. Let’s remember that behind every action there is an expression of a need, a feeling.
And behind Grillo, there’s no vacuum: there’s someone who is a true master of communication. So, every time Berlusconi “speaks,” the web reacts, following the most natural cause-and-effect rule. Once again, the numbers speak unequivocally: the IMU tax refund? Over 56,000 tweets in one day, and then further peaks in conversation with an average trend of over 30% during the period.
And the others? Bersani is second on Facebook for engagement: this means the community is interested in the content… but the peaks on Twitter are all dedicated to the Monte Paschi affair. Monti is stable on Twitter, but within his coalition, only Casini manages to be among the top ten on Facebook. Behind them, in scattered, descending order, are all the others who perhaps started too late.
But ultimately, what’s important is to prepare for the next elections… no, not these ones, but the ones after, which might not be that far away.
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