In this article, we will try to understand if the upcoming generative artificial intelligence in Google Search represents a real threat or not for bloggers or content authors.
History of Artificial Intelligence
Many people don’t know that AIartificial intelligence is not as new as they might think. Researchers around the world started exploring AI as early as the 1950s and had already made significant progress by the 1980s.
Despite the progress made in the 1980s, AI faced challenges such as funding cuts and an inability to meet high expectations. Furthermore, the hardware available at the time had limited computing and storage capabilities compared to what we have today. This became a challenge for AI researchers and developers who needed a lot of computational resources to train and run complex AI models. Researchers had to settle for smaller datasets and simpler models due to the limited resources available. As a result, it limited the possibilities for exploring and developing AI applications in terms of scope and reach.
The high cost of computer hardware made it even more difficult for researchers to access AI research and development. This led to a decline in interest and support for AI for a significant number of years. In recent years, there have been several developments that have helped overcome these issues. See the list below.
- Cloud computing platforms have lowered the barrier to entry for AI research and development by providing accessible and scalable computing resources.
- The availability of open-source AI frameworks, such as TensorFlow and PyTorch, has helped researchers work on cutting-edge projects with limited resources.
- Advances in hardware, such as GPUs and specialized AI chips, have made more powerful and cost-effective computing options accessible.
What prompted Google to announce generative AI in search?
It is important to understand the reasons that led Google to announce the implementation of generative AI in its search engine.
Popularity of ChatGPT over Bard
In November 2022, OpenAI released a chatbot called ChatGPT with the promise of generating human-like responses. According to OpenAI, ChatGPT acquired one million users in just 5 days of its launch and, by January 2023, it reached 100 million monthly active users, making it the fastest-growing application in history. A few months after its launch, OpenAI released a more refined version of ChatGPT based on GPT-4 and made it available to paid subscribers. Since ChatGPT’s launch, there have been over 20 large generative AI language models available as open source. Some of these open-source models perform better than Bard (Google’s alternative to ChatGPT) on some tasks.
When Google released Bard at the end of March 2023, it was only available in the US and the UK. People had to first show their interest and sign up for a waiting list before getting access. Google announced during the I/O conference that Bard will be available in 180 more countries. I received an invitation to sign up for Bard from Google. I will be more precise about Google’s AI actions in the coming months.
ChatGPTwas released, with the promise of generating human-like responses.
Google Trends reveals that Bard’s popularity is still very low compared to ChatGPT. Since Google I/O announcement it has picked up, but it is still far behind ChatGPT. ChatGPT also has an ecosystem around it. ChatGPT APIs and plugins have been available for some months now. In simple terms, ChatGPT can be integrated into the most used software like MS Excel, MS Word, etc. For example, you have company names in a column in MS Excel and you want to know the industries and positions of these companies. You can do this via the ChatGPT API.
Safeguarding market share from the threat of Bing
Microsoft’s Bing search engine has made the premium ChatGPT-4 version available for free, along with access to real-time information. Microsoft has added a new tab called Chat to its search engine. Bing has never gained so much attention in the past. Microsoft has not much to lose in terms of search engine market share. It is always Google that has to defend its dominant position in search. At the moment, Google is far ahead of its competitors. Please refer to the table below. Most of Google’s revenue (~58%) comes from Google Search Network ads.
AI in Google Search: No serious threat to bloggers
Some people fear that AI will end up replacing bloggers and content creators. Their concerns surged when Google presented its upcoming AI-powered search engine at the I/O conference. The output of generative AI will be displayed before any related links in Google Search results. If you take a closer look at the current Google search engine, you might find that the threat posed by artificial intelligence to bloggers is relatively limited. This is due to the pre-existence of featured snippets and the substantial percentage of Google’s revenue derived from display ads. Let’s get into some facts and figures to better understand.
Featured Snippets
In Google, featured snippets appear in the zero position, showing the best answer to a question above all other organic search results. They also include a link to the source page. Featured snippets can take various forms, such as paragraphs, lists, or tables. At the end of 2017, Google reported an accuracy rate of 97.4% for featured snippets. While recent data is unavailable, it’s highly probable that the accuracy rate has continued to improve significantly in recent years.
Google’s plan to replace featured snippets with generative artificial intelligence in the future aims to answer complex search queries that featured snippets might not fully cover. Unlike featured snippets, generative AI results may not always display the source URL. However, it’s crucial to note that the accuracy of generative AI is currently not on par with that of featured snippets and may not reach that level even in the coming years.
Featured snippets have been around for over seven years, and if your blog has received organic traffic in recent years, it’s likely to continue doing so in the future.
Ad Revenue from Google Network Members
Google’s revenue model is primarily based on advertising, with Google Network members contributing significantly (11.7% higher than YouTube ads (10.4%)). Google Network members include ad revenue generated from ads placed on blogs/websites through “Adsense, Ad Manager, AdMobs“.
It is highly unlikely that Google would want to significantly reduce ad revenue from Google Network members. If you believe Google would prioritize increasing Google search ads to offset this potential loss, it’s important to note that featured snippets and tab boxes in Google Search have already existed for many years. Generative AI results would replace these existing features.
Likely Slow AI Integration into Search
It took Google over seven years to reach the milestone of featured snippets appearing on 23% of all search engine results pages. It is highly probable that the integration of AI into Google Search will also be slow due to the high infrastructure costs and the inaccuracy of results. Google displays results in milliseconds even when there are billions of active users searching simultaneously. Bard takes a couple of seconds even when there aren’t even millions of users using it. Slowing down the search results page by even a second will impact Google’s revenue. Furthermore, inaccurate search results on Google could lead to government action against the company.
AI in Google Search: Who Should Be Concerned?
Generative AI in Google Search could be a concern for specific groups or industries. See the list below.
- Freelance writers: those who create content for bloggers and are paid per article might be concerned about the potential impact of AI-generated content. AI helps blog owners write content more efficiently and can help improve grammar, style, and clarity. This could lead to a reduced demand for writers in the future.
- Professionals SEO: professionals’ demand might potentially decrease as AI-powered search engines prioritize content quality over traditional SEO practices.
- Bloggers specializing in specific niche topics: if your blog traffic has significantly decreased in recent months, it may be due to users shifting to ChatGPT and Bard instead of traditional Google searches for that particular topic. If so, you might experience a further impact in the future as generative AI results begin to appear in Google Search.
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